February 13, 2022
It's Super Bowl Sunday. And we're in the midst of the Winter Olympics. And the Leafs have put one of their best teams ever on the ice.
But I don't care. In fact, I'm so pissed off that I can't really focus on anything.
Our country has been occupied by a bunch of jackasses demanding freedom from public health measures. They've blocked the border and occupied central Ottawa with their big trucks and RVs. Our political leadership has looked absolutely pathetic and our police appear to actively support a rude minority of entitled assholes. I can't help but think of those old Rage Against the Machine lyrics: "some of those that work forces are the same that burn crosses." It certainly seems that way.
In the words of Coach from Letterkenny, this whole thing is "fucking embarrassing."
I'm full of rage. I've become a bit like Uncle Toby from Tristram Shandy, researching siege techniques in order to fulfill my fantasy of fighting back against these occupying assholes. Wikipedia obligingly informs me of the subtleties of siege warfare and yields a whole new vocabulary, including terms like "investment" and "countervalation." I study ways of limiting movement and making life difficult: Czech hedgehogs, razor wire, fire hoses. I try to determine if it is possible to create an EMP that would destroy the electronics in a small group of vehicles and I think about the practicalities of firing .50 caliber shells into engine blocks (hey, it worked on MythBusters). Truckers like meth. Can we introduce some kind of drug-based bioweapon like the Tartars did at the Siege of Caffa? (Note to self -- stereotype much? Who's the asshole now?)
In short, I dream of violence and revenge. But, all in all, I'm an idiot.
There's a reason I'm not making these decisions. The last thing we need is for our Prime Minister to invoke the Emergencies Act and put our country into a state of martial law. Really, that's what the assholes want -- an excuse to scream "tyranny!" [n1]
Decisions are hard. It's too easy to make the wrong decisions for the wrong reasons. I know this. As an aspiring Bayesian, I know that I should check my priors and look for disconfirming evidence. Salvador Allende, for example, was essentially toppled by the actions of truckers and we know that large vehicles are particularly effective at paralyzing infrastructure. Annie Duke, champion poker player, has popularized the term resulting -- "the tendency to equate the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome." This is the thing: what outcome do we really want here? Is it the guns-blazing approach that would satiate my current blood lust? Probably not.
I'm not alone in my rage. I, along with a lot of other Canadians, am currently in a particularly dangerous state for decision-making. To borrow another poker term, we are on tilt. Annie Duke again: "Tilt, of course, is not just limited to poker. Any kind of outcome has the potential for causing an emotional reaction." On tilt, players aren't "decision fit."
I am definitely on tilt and admit that my imagined medieval and early modern interventions probably aren't appropriate for the current situation. That said, I have problems with the authorities' current approach of simply appeasing the occupiers. In a tweet, Dan Gardner -- coauthor of Superforcasters, so a guy who knows a thing or two about decision analyses -- warned about the dangers of the danegeld or the tribute paid by the English to protect themselves from Viking ravaging. It was rarely effective; the Vikings ravaged anyways. I can also look to any number of principles from game theory to suggest that appeasement is a very bad idea.
But remember, dear reader, I'm an idiot.
I hope that our authorities are playing a different kind of game here. Our asshole occupiers are -- in the words of James P. Carse -- playing a very short and finite game. They are playing to win by the terms that they have established. The wiser approach is to play the long game of democracy, an infinite game. Carse's introduction is worth quoting at length:
"There are at least two kinds of games: finite and infinite. A finite game is played for the purpose of winning, an infinite game for the purpose of continuing the play. Finite games are those instrumental activities -- from sports to politics to wars -- in which the participants obey rules, recognize boundaries and announce winners and losers. The infinite game -- there is only one -- includes any authentic interaction, from touching to culture, that changes rules, plays with boundaries and exists solely for the purpose of continuing the game. A finite player seeks power; the infinite one displays self-sufficient strength. Finite games are theatrical, necessitating an audience; infinite ones are dramatic, involving participants..."
The infinite game is played over a long period of time. Democracy and freedom are infinite games.
Aesthetics and Pace Layers
Two years ago, immediately pre-COVID, I went on a skiing trip. Some algorithm helpfully suggested reading material, including an issue of a new magazine. I really enjoyed some of the articles: one on tactical backpacks with MOLLE add-ons (I carry one of those!); another article on Brazilian Jiu Jitsu for self-defense (I train BJJ!); one on the fight choreography of the John Wick films (great movies!); and yet another on Belgian Shepherds (I've got one -- but a Groenendael, not a Malinois. She's lovely.).
And then I read the classifieds at the back of the magazine. Yikes. Clearly, this magazine was not for me. I had no need for bulk orders of "MAKE [insert text] GREAT AGAIN!" hats nor for mail-order catalogs of Nordic Pride gear. Apparently, my aesthetics are a mismatch with my politics. They are, however, a great match for some of the occupiers loose on the streets of Ottawa.
In 1994 Stewart Brand released a fascinating book called How Buildings Learn which is about, in his words, how buildings are "always trying to tear themselves apart." Architects design buildings with the intention of them never changing. Yet, other than a few Frank Lloyd Wright show pieces, buildings always change and adapt based on how their occupants work and live. Brand borrowed (or, as he says, "stole") concepts from the English architect Frank Duffy who noted that a commercial building actually consists of four different layers: the Shell (with a lifespan of about 50 years), Services (15 years), Scenery like the interior walls and decoration (5-7 years), and the Set of furniture and other movables (<1 year). For the book, Brand extended this idea, introducing what he called the "Shearing Layers" of Site, Structure, Skin, Services, Space Plan, and Stuff.
Brand subsequently returned to this idea while working with Brian Eno and Freeman Dyson on ideas for his book The Clock of the Long Now. They realized that this idea of layers with different change-rates and time horizons can also apply to the infinite game of human civilization. But instead of the components of the built environment, we get a specific set of "Pace Layers":
• Fashion/art
• Commerce
• Infrastructure
• Governance
• Culture
• Nature
Brand explains the concept: "Consider the differently paced components to be layers. Each layer is functionally different from the others and operates somewhat independently, but each layer influences and responds to the layers closest to it in a way that makes the whole system resilient."
He continues: "Fast learns, slow remembers. Fast proposes, slow disposes. Fast is discontinuous, slow is continuous. Fast and small instructs slow and big by accrued innovation and by occasional revolution. Slow and big controls small and fast by constraint and constancy. Fast gets all our attention, slow has all the power."
I have to believe that the trucker protests are a kind of fashion or aesthetic. Many of the occupiers carry tactical gear with MOLLE webbing. Many of them probably practice BJJ and think they want to own Belgian Shepherds (they're actually a lot of work. I prefer Gronendaels and Turvurens and could have a long chat on how breeding pressures have changed the basic character of the Malinois due to the demand for security/MWD/ring dogs. But that discussion is for a different time).
The aesthetics of the movement are clear in the prominent display of flags and other symbols. We shake our heads at the sight of the Canadian Maple Leaf beside the Confederate flag, Nazi swastikas, and Schutzstaffel bolts. But it is a performance of fashion and art that lives at the shallowest level of Brand's pace layers. Perhaps it's appropriate to allow a fashion spectacle to protect the slower pace layers. Police seemed less keen on disrupting the protests on Ottawa's Parliament Hill but became acutely agitated when occupiers shut down traffic on Windsor's Ambassador Bridge, one of Canada's most vital commercial conduits. Fashion and performance are fine but when Commerce and -- in our worst fears -- the Infrastructure of the bridge itself are threatened, authorities need to act.
There is, of course, a broader concern. Are these occupations a threat to who we are as a people, our Governance and Culture? Perhaps, but that seems unlikely. Governments will come and go, swing right and left, but Culture is a much more permanent beast: "Culture's vast slow-motion dance keeps century and millennium time. Slower than political and economic history, it moves at the pace of language and religion. Culture is the work of whole peoples." That said, the beast needs feeding and exercise from the higher layers. Even as I tilt-rage about feet on the ground, the perceived incompetence of our political leaders and our police, I have to recognize that Canada (and our whole civilization) is a much longer game.
He did it: PMJT invokes the Emergencies Act
So, it's not martial law. There are no tanks rolling down the streets. Our Prime Minister did, however, invoke the Emergencies Act in a limited way. I've now had the opportunity to better understand the limits of our legislation and the relevant checks and balances. To me, the limited application of the Emergencies Act is appropriate (but remember, I'm likely on-tilt so don't trust my opinion). It is notable, however, that the federal government is not doing what most expected or wanted: rolling in military vehicles to forcibly remove protestors. "Tyranny!" It is, instead, enacting the very mundane tactics of freezing financial assets (corporate and personal) and forcing the termination of vehicle insurance. These types of controls are certainly much deeper in the pace layer stack than the drama of batons and fire hoses. They are also probably much more severe in the long run for offenders.
Note that similar controls could have been applied at the provincial level but weren't. In April 2021, a group of dump trucks convened outside an Ontario Ministry of Transportation building, blocking inspection sites. They were threatened with fines and licensing suspensions after six days of protests (although other protestors at Queen's Park were not similarly threatened). So the province of Ontario certainly has the tools and has been willing to use them in the past. It seems unfortunate that the federal government has had to step in with what seems like the weapon of last resort. We have now, essentially, increased the enforcement volume to 11. [r1]
Just to make matters more difficult, the chief of Ottawa Police Services, Peter Sloly, has suddenly resigned. He is, unsurprisingly, under considerable pressure given the apparent mishandling of the situation. The socials are all alight with accusations that, consistent with Rage Against the Machine's warnings, police are actively supporting and protecting the occupiers. This undermining of public confidence in our institutions is, perhaps, an attack on our deeper pace layers, but I find great solace in Hanlon's Razor: "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity." [r2]
PMJT is now on the horns of the Uncle Ben dilemma: "with great power comes great responsibility." Luke 12:48 in the KJV might be the more appropriate, if lesser known, version: "For unto whomsoever much is given, of him shall be much required: and to whom men have committed much, of him they will ask the more." With the power of the Emergencies Act the federal government will have to do something and make the blockades go away. It's a narrow road to victory, particularly when we look past the pomp and flash of what's happening on the street to the deeper pace layers. The authorities now have to meet the demands of residents without treading on the governance structure we have in place: they can't supersede provincial authority without a clear invitation to do so; they can't breach the charter of rights and freedoms for all Canadians; and they must maintain the sanctity of Canadian infrastructure and governance. The end-game always has to be appropriate Infrastructure, effective Governance, and a supportive Culture.
No small task. If all else fails, we can always just go back to the medieval approach. Fortunately, I've made some slides that I'm willing to share with the RCMP and Ontario Police Services if they're interested. They start with a brief overview of the second chapter of The life and opinions of Tristram Shandy, gentleman, before moving on to the Ottoman tactics at the Great Siege of Malta in 1565, as applied to modern C-class RVs. It should be a fantastic conversation.
Notes
n1. Mr. Trudeau did, indeed, invoke the emergencies act just a few days after I wrote this. I actually think it went pretty well. Keep reading for my initial take
References
r1. "Ontario has stopped a trucker convoy before, just not the one you're thinking of" https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-stops-trucker-convoy-dump-truck-1.6347858
r2. Perhaps Heinlein's version is more appropriate: "Never ascribe to malice that which can be explained by incompetence."
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